For those who didn’t hear of the news yesterday that the Federal Reserve plans on pumping $1.2 trillion in the U.S. economy, let me assure you that this is BIG news. It was no surprise that the Federal Open Market Committee kept the federal funds rate at .25%, and economists expect that rate to stay there for the remainder of 2009 and perhaps even into 2010.
The announcement that the Fed would buy $300 million to purchase long-term government bonds, however, raised eyebrows and encouraged enthusiasm at a time when such sentiment is in short supply. The Fed also announced that it would purchase an additional $750 billion in mortgage-backed securities that would be guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
As a student of economics in college, this would have been the type of news we spent an entire macro economics class discussing (or perhaps multiple classes). Government spending is nothing new, of course, but make no mistake, this is not “government spending” in any traditional sense. It’s more like “government investing,” both in the instruments themselves (10 year t-bonds and mortgage-backed securities) and in the U.S. economy.
The move to invest in the 10-year bonds is not unprecedented, but the last time it happened was in the 1960s (yes, over 40 years ago). That was before I was born, so forgive me if I’m a bit excited about what is *nearly* unprecedented.
For those not entirely in tune with credit and financial markets, the 10-year bond can be thought of as the bellwether for 30-year mortgage rates. The two don’t have a definitive spread, but the general concept is that they move in concert, for the most part. By purchasing such a huge chunk of 10-year treasuries, the Fed is driving up the price of the bonds which, in turn, drives down the yield (percentage rate). So, when those 10-year t-bonds go down (they dropped from 3.01% to 2.5% yesterday - the largest decrease in over 20 years), mortgage rates follow suit.
What’s that mean for Maryland real estate agents, mortgage brokers, home owners and would-be home buyers?
Well, for mortgage brokers, it means rates in Maryland have fallen to just about 4.5%, without points, for those with excellent credit. That rate may fall even further in the coming days, so those with decent credit (or better), will have every incentive to re-finance or buy a home. For agents, it means that more people (the smart ones) will be taking advantage of the combination of depressed prices and low rates (neither of which should be around for TOO much longer) and get what is perhaps the deal of a lifetime. For homeowners, it means they can refinance AND that the hit they’ve taken on their equity should return sooner rather than later.
What, then, is the downside to the Fed’s move?
Well, the dollar already declined fairly sharply against foreign currencies and fears of inflation have re-entered the picture. The Fed essentially “created” the money it’s using to make these investments, so in very basic terms, more money added to the economy = less value per dollar. Under normal circumstances, such a move may crush the economy, but prices have actually declined for some goods of late, which means that as long as the Fed takes its foot off the accelerator in good time, long-term inflation should not be a major concern. Balancing growth with inflation fears is, of course, always a concern, but that’s the Fed’s job (among other things).